Thursday Update on the Potential For Sunday Snow...

As the Arctic cold settles in, we're still watching potential developments for later in the upcoming weekend. The computer data is still a bit scattered and is likely having trouble dealing with this pattern. The disturbance that we're tracking has been over an area with sparse data fields, so the sampling may not provide an accurate forecast. With that in mind, the key model runs will come later tonight and tomorrow as we get a better sampling.

Here's the situation. The GFS, which has not dealt with this approaching upper level energy very well, has come around and now shows a "logical" solution (Sunday's solution...upper level and surface are shown below). Like most of the computer models, it places the surface low over the lower Great Lakes, a track way to our north. However, the upper trough digs south and actually taps into moisture from the Gulf (not necessarily a likely scenario). Nonetheless, it does suggest some precipitation over us (in the form of snow) later Sunday and Sunday night.

Meanwhile, the European has been my model of choice for several days, as it has been consistent with showing this feature. However, it had been tracking the surface system farther south and then shifted north with yesterday's runs. It remains farther north, with some apparent secondary development along the coast. Maps for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday are shown from the new run below. The big concern is its trouble handling the following disturbance (after the initial one) that enters the eastern U.S. trough. The Euro now seems to be focusing a bit more on this second disturbance, which could trigger another round of possible snow showers/flurries on Tuesday. It will be interesting to see whether the model data eventually shifts its focus to this system. So putting it all together, my thoughts haven't changed much. I still feel we have the potential of a light accumulating snow on Sunday/Sunday night. However, if the focus shifts to the second disturbance, we might not have much if anything to deal with on Sunday...and we may need to turn our attention to Tuesday. Of course with our track record the last few years, anything could happen and nothing is a guarantee. Stay tuned!