Saturday Afternoon Update...

Well folks, the set-up is still rather complicated regarding tomorrow's weather. And unfortunately for snow lovers, several things are just not coming into place. First of all, despite the fact we've had a bone-chilling Arctic air mass over us, it's already lifting out of the region and there's nothing to hold cold air in place. As low pressure moves over the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes, an upper level trough sinks southeast toward the Mid-Atlantic. This is the feature I've been keying on for several days. The first problem here is that the air remains quite dry. The other problem is a developing southwest flow will be warming the lower layers of the atmosphere and it appears we could just see a little rain tomorrow afternoon, as surface temperatures climb into the low 40s. The one big question mark remains tomorrow night, as temperatures "cool" again and the upper level set-up becomes more favorable for snow. How long will any precipitation hang around? I still believe we could see some light snow over at least some of the area overnight into early Monday morning. This means we could wake up to see a white ground. But as is typical around here, a lot of factors have to come together and play out just right. The other big issue involved is the second disturbance I've been referring to. The European model still develops an area of low pressure just off the Carolina coast on Tuesday. The moisture fields are basically south and east of us, but it's still something to watch. It's a rather complex pattern that shows potential, but could also end up being a total miss for us. All I can say is we'll have to watch how the pattern evolves over the next 24 hours...but the potential is still there.