Up and Down Temps This Weekend...And An Update on the Big Storm...

The weekend looks fabulous, with lots of sunshine...but a quick change in temperatures. Saturday will be chilly, with afternoon highs only near 40. Then the wind swings around to the southwest and temperatures fly to around 60 or even a little higher Sunday afternoon.

Now the main event...

We're still watching developments for the "big" storm early next week. Over the last 24 hours, the model forecast suite has shifted dramatically to a track much farther east. Some would think this might increase our snow chances, but honestly it might just take most of our "precipitation" chances away. It will be quite mild on Monday, with an approaching cold front sliding in from the northwest. Showers will be possible later on and at night, but based on the latest data, I think the threat for heavy rain has diminished considerably. The storm track may very well be to our south and east and far enough away that we might not see that much precipitation. Of course with such a shift in the data the last 24 hours, we could see more changes in the upcoming runs...so we shouldn't jump to conclusions too fast. Anyhow, the reason for the changes is the upper level pattern. Yesterday I talked about a potential slower storm track due to the digging upper trough and deepening surface system. Well it looks like the trough won't dig as far south, waiting for another piece of energy on Tuesday. So this allows the storm to scoot by rather quickly off the coast. It indeed makes meteorological sense. What we're left with is a good piece of upper energy digging the trough south behind the storm later Tuesday and Wednesday. This actually induces a second area of low pressure on the European run over the Carolinas. I don't know that it will be that significant, but I can't rule out the possibility of squeezing some snow showers over us later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. It certainly makes the whole situation more intriguing. Even though it looks like the inland storm track won't happen, we'll still be dealing with some strong winds Tuesday and Wednesday. I've posted the latest model maps below...the GFS effective Tuesday afternoon and the European effective Tuesday morning. I'll keep you posted on any developments over the weekend...