Tomorrow looks like a rather nasty day no matter what way you look at it. Milder air will be running up and over colder air at the surface (what we call "overrunning"), setting the stage for precipitation to break out over the region early tomorrow morning. I think the average start time in the metro will be around 8 A.M. The model data has been very consistent with critical values in the various levels of the atmosphere, indicating a mainly liquid event in the Metro Richmond area. However, the initial batch of precipitation will help to cool the column of air, causing some snow and sleet at the start. Well south of Richmond, from the Tri-Cities south and east, all the precipitation may very well be rain. As milder air gradually advances in from the south, everyone will eventually go over to rain. Up in the higher elevations well north and west, this process will likely take until Wednesday. So here's what I expect in terms of potential accumulation:
Metro Richmond: a few icy/slick spots, but no "significant" accumulation (freezing rain could be a threat for a couple of hours)
North & West Suburbs (from Ashland/Goochland N & W): Up to 1" of sleet and snow, some ice accumulation
Charlottesville over to Fredericksburg: 1-3 inches of snow and sleet with potential ice accumulation as well
North & West Suburbs (from Ashland/Goochland N & W): Up to 1" of sleet and snow, some ice accumulation
Charlottesville over to Fredericksburg: 1-3 inches of snow and sleet with potential ice accumulation as well
Harrisonburg/Staunton: 2-5 inches
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