Update on Our Upcoming Snow Chances...

Well it's now Friday afternoon and things really aren't much clearer concerning the weekend situation. It's funny, because the model data is actually pretty consistent...but it just doesn't give a clear indication as to specific developments for us. My gut feeling is still that we will see the potential for some light accumulating snow, most likely overnight Sunday into Monday morning. My concern is that the lower layers of the atmosphere warm a bit on Sunday and by the time any precipitation develops, we may see a light mixture or even light rain. Doesn't that always seem to happen around here? Regardless, if everything goes according to plan, there should be some light snow in the air Sunday night. And...there may be the possibility of another event on Tuesday. This is something I mentioned the European model hinted at yesterday, and it is still waving the flag today.

The NAM and the GFS are our main short range models. The NAM is quite dry with this approaching system and while it's colder in its temperature profile, it would suggest little if any precipitation over Virginia. The GFS has become quite consistent in its track of the upper level energy heading well south and triggering some development along the coast. Take a look at the Monday morning map below. It's quite impressive! If this solution verifies, we would likely see some mixed precipitation Sunday afternoon/early evening, but then probably go to snow overnight. In terms of the second disturbance the European is hitting rather hard, the GFS shows some weak development along the Gulf coast (no closed low), which then tracks quickly well off the coast (second map below).

As for the European, kudos for showing this Sunday system first and giving me the confidence to put it in the forecast back on Monday! Even though it has weakened its solution quite a bit, the general pattern is consistent. There is the upper trough that swings over the area, with some surface development along the coast (although nothing like the current GFS). The main reason for a weaker Sunday system is the model is focusing on the second system that would impact us on Tuesday. (the model's Tuesday morning map is shown below). It doesn't look quite as agressive as yesterday's runs, but still something to watch closely. If this becomes the primary wave/system, then we could be dealing with winter weather in the Mid-Atlantic on Inauguration Day.

So that's the rundown on our latest data. Hopefully things will really clear up over the weekend...but it's apparent that we have two POTENTIAL threats here...one on Sunday and another on Tuesday. I doubt both will be a big deal, but one should be able to give us at least a "taste" of winter weather. Stay tuned!